2022 house of representatives election prediction

For those who are really into the numbers, Platinum Members can review demographic crosstabs and a full history of our data. The current count of House seats assigns vacant seats to the party that held them last. Six states (Texas, Colorado, Florida, Montana, North Carolina, and Oregon) gained districts, and seven states (California, Illinois, Michigan, New York, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and West Virginia) lost districts. Currently, the Democrats hold just a 219-211 lead in the House . [2] Ten districts were open because the incumbent lost in a primary. A similar situation occurred in the 2012 election, in which Republicans managed to hold onto their majority despite losing the national popular vote for the House. Box 400806Charlottesville, VA 22904, 2020 By the Rector and Visitors of the University of Virginia. The larger the presidential partys deficit on the generic ballot and the more seats it is defending, the more seats it tends to lose. What Election Day looks like based on polls alone, What Election Day looks like based on polls, fundraising, past voting patterns and more, What Election Day looks like when we add experts ratings to the Classic forecast. You can also view these ratings as a table. You can also view these ratingsas a table. RCP Senate Map Race Changes. Democratic Rep. Elissa Slotkin's battleground seat got slightly easier in redistricting, but the GOP thinks it can oust her with a national tailwind. Click here! Republicans are widely expected to gain at least a few additional House seats in 2022 by virtue of controlling states with far more House districts during the redistricting process. There were 30 U.S. House Democratic battleground primaries in 2022. Beyond this general tendency, however, the magnitude of these losses has varied considerably. [40][41], On February 10, 2021, the NRCC released an initial list of 47 House Democrats whose districts it would target in the 2022 elections. The closest U.S. House race in 2022 was in Colorado's 3rd Congressional District, where Lauren Boebert (R) defeated Adam Frisch (D) by a margin of 0.17%, or 546 votes out of more than 300,000 cast. Overview and Live Results: Chicago Mayoral Election, Legislative Special Elections, Michigan Rep. Elissa Slotkin Running for U.S. Senate, Initial 2024 House Ratings from Sabato's Crystal Ball. This web site is a creation of Philippe J. Fournier, physics and astrophysics professor at Cgep de Saint-Laurent in Montreal. -- A large number of races remain close and competitive. A federal district court, in striking down the state's congressional redistricting plan, postponed the deadline for candidates qualifying by petition in lieu of paying the filing fee from June 22, 2022, to July 8, 2022. For more information on our methodology, click here: In addition to the competitiveness data above, a race may be particularly compelling or meaningful to the balance of power in governments for other reasons. File usage on Commons. The following table displays members listed as "On the Radar" in the NRCC's Young Guns program for the 2022 election cycle. [55] Also included is each district's 2022 partisan lean as of June 2022 from The Cook Political Report and FiveThirtyEight. Send us an email. 2022 U.S. House of Representative election results and polls Candidates start in the On the Radar phase before qualifying as a Contender, then as a full-fledged Young Gun. We are just 600 short days away from the 2022 midterm elections, which means it is the perfect time to handicap the Republicans' chances to win back the House, Senate and prepare a serious. This is not surprising given the much smaller number of Senate seats contested in each election and the larger potential impact of local factors such as candidate quality and fundraising. Welcome to 338Canada Quebec! All 435 districts were up for election. The following map shows each state with a Democratic battleground primary for U.S. House in 2022. We use numbers to expressuncertainty. -- There are currently slated to be 18 Republicans in Biden seats and just 5 KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- After overestimating Republican performance in 2022, we wanted to give a short explanation to readers about our thinking in the run-up to the election. 2022 Review: How Republicans Lost Despite Winning the Popular Vote There were several reasons Republicans struggled to translate votes into seats, including candidate quality and strength in the. November 6:CA-21, IL-08, WA-06 move from Safe to Likely D; CO-03 Safe to Likely R; CT-05 Leans D to Leans R; GA-02, NJ-03 Likely to Leans D; WA-03 Safe to Likely D. All toss-ups picked - Toss-up to Leans D: CA-13, ME-02, MI-08, MN-02, NY-17, PA-08, TX-28. The table below includes election results for districts that were open at the time the state held its congressional primary. Gibbs unofficially withdrew from his primary after announcing his retirement on April 9, 2022. In the Senate data, the point for 2002 is also well above the regression line while points for several other elections including 1962 and 1978 are also well above or below the line. Click on the to see the other two. You can also view these ratings as a table. Gerald Ford's (R) first term began in August 1974 following the resignation of President Richard Nixon (R), who was first elected in 1968 and was re-elected in 1972. All 435 seats were up for election. The table below includes election results for seats that were open because the incumbent lost re-election in a primary. -- That said, there are also a lot of contradictory signs. We're constantly speaking with campaigns to form our ratings. Also included is each district's 2022 partisan lean as of July 2022 from The Cook Political Report and FiveThirtyEight. The state court then issued an order establishing new candidate filing deadlines. Broken down by the winner's party, the average MOV was 27.7 percentage points for Democrats and 30.2 percentage points for Republicans. [56][57], The following table displays candidates who have qualified for the Young Guns Vanguard program for the 2022 election cycle. [66][67], Cook's 2022 PVI report included the following congressional district statistics following the 2020 election cycle:[68]. -- Going solely by presidential partisanship, our moves in Alaska and South Texas would seem odd, but each areahaskeyidiosyncrasies. KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- The spending decisions by big outside House groups can inform us about the most competitive House races. Hover over a district for more information. With ten days until the November 8 midterm elections, political forecasters and pollsters say Republicans appear to have a strong chance of retaking control of the House of Representatives.. 213 -10. No Electoral College majority, House decides election. Republicans' South Texas surge could net them this congressional seat. Facebook Tweet Pin Email. A special election for the seat was held concurrently with the general election on November 8. The court's order did not affect the July 22, 2022, deadline for candidates qualifying by paying the filing fee. Gluesenkamp defeated Kent in the general election. November 7: CA-22, PA-17, RI-02, TX-34 move from Toss-up to Tilts R; CA-49, IN-01, NY-03 Leans to Tilts D; CT-05, NV-01 Tilts D to Toss-up; IL-08, WA-06 Safe to Likely D; ME-02, MN-02 Toss-up to Leans D; NY-22 Leans to Tilts R; OH-01 Toss-up to Leans R; TX-28 Tilts to Leans D; VA-02 Tilts to Leans R; WA-08 Leans D to Toss-up. Ahead of the Quebec election on Oct. 3, Global News has profiled all 125 ridings in the province so you can find your riding, learn more about the local . Two predictors largely explain the variation in seat swing in midterm elections: the generic ballot and the number of House and Senate seats defended by the presidents party. Use this as a starting point to create and share your own 2022 House forecast. An even, 50-50 split of the Toss Up districts would translate to a 17-seat Republican gain. KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- Our final Senate pick is 51-49 Republican, or a net Republican gain of 1 seat. Republicans are enthusiastic about their chances of taking over the U.S. House of Representatives in the midterm elections of 2022. The Senate model is not quite as accurate, explaining about 60% of the variance in seat swing. All rights reserved. We're tracking new legislative maps as they come out, and crunching the numbers. 2022 Election Results Republicans have won the House, regaining control of the chamber for the first time since 2018. A smaller Democratic lead in the generic ballot, or a Republican lead, would predict a Republican edge in the House, and possibly also in the Senate. Most Voters Reject Anti-White Beliefs. . Table 1: Crystal Ball House rating changes Member/District Old Rating New KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- To get a flavor of the 2022 ad messages from both sides, we watched nearly 350 campaign ads that came out in the second half of September. Nov. 6, 2022 Georgia's 2nd District Previous rating: Likely Democratic Democratic Rep. Sanford Bishop is still favored for reelection, but GOP Gov. The following table shows the number of U.S. House incumbents defeated in each election cycle from 2000 to 2022, by party. Only districts rated safe by six of them are shown in the darkest shade. Given the expected impact of redistricting, however, Democrats probably need a larger lead to keep control of the House. Heading into the election, Democrats had a 220-212 majority. The generic congressional vote rating indicates which political party voters support in a congressional election. Colorado. * This is FiveThirtyEights best guess as to who the nominee will be, based on an analysis of incumbency, polls, fundraising, previous experience and endorsements. In 2020, Republicans won 26 of the 27 seats rated as Toss Up by POLITICO. The 2022 United States House of Representatives elections in Tennessee was held on November 8, 2022, to elect the nine U.S. representatives from the state of Tennessee, one from each of the state's nine congressional districts.The elections coincide with other elections to the House of Representatives, elections to the United States Senate, and various state and local elections. Forecasts from outside this range can easily be generated by extrapolating from those shown in the table. Edited by Kyle Kondik, J. Scholten defeated Gibbs in the general election. The president's party lost 48 or more U.S. House seats in 11 of the 50 elections since 1918, ranging from 97 seats lost under President Herbert Hoover in 1930 to 48 seats lost under Presidents Lyndon Johnson (1966) and Gerald Ford (1974). The average MOV of in the U.S. House was 28.9 percentage points, the second smallest margin since 2012, and up slightly from 28.8 percentage points in 2020. Rep. Jackie Walorski (R) died in a car accident on August 3, 2022. The most vulnerable GOP incumbent in the country might be Rep. Mike Garcia, whose district north of Los Angeles voted for President Joe Biden by 13 points. U.S. House races in which more than one incumbent ran, non-voting delegate seats that were up for election in 2022, districts targeted by national campaign committees, newly created seats following the 2020 census, Fundraising figures for party campaign committees, important dates and deadlines for the 2022 election cycle, Click here for our Election Day coverage of the November 8, 2022, U.S. House election results, Delaware's At-Large Congressional District, Massachusetts' 1st Congressional District, Massachusetts' 2nd Congressional District, Massachusetts' 3rd Congressional District, Massachusetts' 4th Congressional District, Massachusetts' 5th Congressional District, Massachusetts' 6th Congressional District, Massachusetts' 7th Congressional District, Massachusetts' 8th Congressional District, Massachusetts' 9th Congressional District, New Hampshire's 1st Congressional District, New Hampshire's 2nd Congressional District, North Carolina's 1st Congressional District, North Carolina's 10th Congressional District, North Carolina's 11th Congressional District, North Carolina's 12th Congressional District, North Carolina's 13th Congressional District, North Carolina's 14th Congressional District, North Carolina's 2nd Congressional District, North Carolina's 3rd Congressional District, North Carolina's 4th Congressional District, North Carolina's 5th Congressional District, North Carolina's 6th Congressional District, North Carolina's 7th Congressional District, North Carolina's 8th Congressional District, North Carolina's 9th Congressional District, North Dakota's At-Large Congressional District, Pennsylvania's 1st Congressional District, Pennsylvania's 10th Congressional District, Pennsylvania's 11th Congressional District, Pennsylvania's 12th Congressional District, Pennsylvania's 13th Congressional District, Pennsylvania's 14th Congressional District, Pennsylvania's 15th Congressional District, Pennsylvania's 16th Congressional District, Pennsylvania's 17th Congressional District, Pennsylvania's 2nd Congressional District, Pennsylvania's 3rd Congressional District, Pennsylvania's 4th Congressional District, Pennsylvania's 5th Congressional District, Pennsylvania's 6th Congressional District, Pennsylvania's 7th Congressional District, Pennsylvania's 8th Congressional District, Pennsylvania's 9th Congressional District, Rhode Island's 1st Congressional District, Rhode Island's 2nd Congressional District, South Carolina's 1st Congressional District, South Carolina's 2nd Congressional District, South Carolina's 3rd Congressional District, South Carolina's 4th Congressional District, South Carolina's 5th Congressional District, South Carolina's 6th Congressional District, South Carolina's 7th Congressional District, South Dakota's At-Large Congressional District, Vermont's At-Large Congressional District, West Virginia's 1st Congressional District, West Virginia's 2nd Congressional District, Wyoming's At-Large Congressional District, United States congressional non-voting members, American Samoa's At-Large Congressional District, District of Columbia's At-Large Congressional District, Northern Mariana Islands At-Large Congressional District, United States Virgin Islands' At-Large Congressional District, Redistricting in Florida after the 2020 census, Redistricting in Georgia after the 2020 census, Redistricting in Illinois after the 2020 census, Redistricting in Michigan after the 2020 census, Redistricting in New York after the 2020 census, Redistricting in Texas after the 2020 census, Redistricting in West Virginia after the 2020 census, Congressional apportionment after the 2020 census, California's 22nd Congressional District election, 2022, California's 27th Congressional District election, 2022, Colorado's 8th Congressional District election, 2022, Illinois' 17th Congressional District election, 2022, Indiana's 1st Congressional District election, 2022, Iowa's 3rd Congressional District election, 2022, Kansas' 3rd Congressional District election, 2022, Maine's 2nd Congressional District election, 2022, Michigan's 3rd Congressional District election, 2022, Michigan's 7th Congressional District election, 2022, Minnesota's 2nd Congressional District election, 2022, Nevada's 1st Congressional District election, 2022, Nevada's 3rd Congressional District election, 2022, New Hampshire's 1st Congressional District election, 2022, New Hampshire's 2nd Congressional District election, 2022, New Jersey's 7th Congressional District election, 2022, New Mexico's 2nd Congressional District election, 2022, New York's 19th Congressional District election, 2022, New York's 22nd Congressional District election, 2022, New York's 3rd Congressional District election, 2022, North Carolina's 13th Congressional District election, 2022, Ohio's 13th Congressional District election, 2022, Ohio's 1st Congressional District election, 2022, Ohio's 9th Congressional District election, 2022, Oregon's 5th Congressional District election, 2022, Pennsylvania's 17th Congressional District election, 2022, Pennsylvania's 8th Congressional District election, 2022, Rhode Island's 2nd Congressional District election, 2022, Texas' 15th Congressional District election, 2022, Texas' 28th Congressional District election, 2022, United States House of Representatives election in Alaska, 2022, Virginia's 7th Congressional District election, 2022, Washington's 8th Congressional District election, 2022, Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, National Republican Congressional Committee, State legislative and congressional redistricting after the 2020 census, Primary election competitiveness in state and federal government, 2022, Ballotpedia's Candidate Filing Analysis Hub, 2022, Georgia's 7th Congressional District election, 2022 (May 24 Democratic primary), Illinois' 17th Congressional District election, 2022 (June 28 Democratic primary), Illinois' 3rd Congressional District election, 2022 (June 28 Democratic primary), Illinois' 6th Congressional District election, 2022 (June 28 Democratic primary), Illinois' 7th Congressional District election, 2022 (June 28 Democratic primary), Illinois' 8th Congressional District election, 2022 (June 28 Democratic primary), Kentucky's 3rd Congressional District election, 2022 (May 17 Democratic primary), Michigan's 11th Congressional District election, 2022 (August 2 Democratic primary), Michigan's 12th Congressional District election, 2022 (August 2 Democratic primary), Minnesota's 1st Congressional District special election, 2022 (May 24 Democratic primary), Nebraska's 2nd Congressional District election, 2022 (May 10 Democratic primary), Nevada's 1st Congressional District election, 2022 (June 14 Democratic primary), New York's 10th Congressional District election, 2022 (August 23 Democratic primary), New York's 12th Congressional District election, 2022 (August 23 Democratic primary), North Carolina's 13th Congressional District election, 2022 (May 17 Democratic primary), North Carolina's 1st Congressional District election, 2022 (May 17 Democratic primary), North Carolina's 4th Congressional District election, 2022 (May 17 Democratic primary), Ohio's 11th Congressional District election, 2022 (May 3 Democratic primary), Oregon's 4th Congressional District election, 2022 (May 17 Democratic primary), Oregon's 5th Congressional District election, 2022 (May 17 Democratic primary), Oregon's 6th Congressional District election, 2022 (May 17 Democratic primary), Texas' 15th Congressional District election, 2022 (March 1 Democratic primary), Texas' 15th Congressional District election, 2022 (May 24 Democratic primary runoff), Texas' 28th Congressional District election, 2022 (March 1 Democratic primary), Texas' 28th Congressional District election, 2022 (May 24 Democratic primary runoff), Texas' 30th Congressional District election, 2022 (March 1 Democratic primary), Texas' 30th Congressional District election, 2022 (May 24 Democratic primary runoff), Texas' 34th Congressional District election, 2022 (March 1 Democratic primary), Texas' 35th Congressional District election, 2022 (March 1 Democratic primary), Texas' 37th Congressional District election, 2022 (March 1 Democratic primary), Alabama's 5th Congressional District election, 2022 (June 21 Republican primary runoff), Alabama's 5th Congressional District election, 2022 (May 24 Republican primary), Arizona's 1st Congressional District election, 2022 (August 2 Republican primary), Arizona's 2nd Congressional District election, 2022 (August 2 Republican primary), Colorado's 8th Congressional District election, 2022 (June 28 Republican primary), Illinois' 15th Congressional District election, 2022 (June 28 Republican primary), Indiana's 9th Congressional District election, 2022 (May 3 Republican primary), Iowa's 3rd Congressional District election, 2022 (June 7 Republican primary), Michigan's 3rd Congressional District election, 2022 (August 2 Republican primary), Minnesota's 1st Congressional District special election, 2022 (May 24 Republican primary), Mississippi's 3rd Congressional District election, 2022 (June 28 Republican primary runoff), Nebraska's 1st Congressional District election, 2022 (May 10 Republican primary), Nevada's 3rd Congressional District election, 2022 (June 14 Republican primary), Nevada's 4th Congressional District election, 2022 (June 14 Republican primary), New York's 23rd Congressional District election, 2022 (August 23 Republican primary), North Carolina's 11th Congressional District election, 2022 (May 17 Republican primary), North Carolina's 13th Congressional District election, 2022 (May 17 Republican primary), North Carolina's 1st Congressional District election, 2022 (May 17 Republican primary), Ohio's 13th Congressional District election, 2022 (May 3 Republican primary), Ohio's 9th Congressional District election, 2022 (May 3 Republican primary), South Carolina's 1st Congressional District election, 2022 (June 14 Republican primary), South Carolina's 7th Congressional District election, 2022 (June 14 Republican primary), Texas' 15th Congressional District election, 2022 (March 1 Republican primary), Texas' 1st Congressional District election, 2022 (March 1 Republican primary), Texas' 38th Congressional District election, 2022 (March 1 Republican primary), Texas' 3rd Congressional District election, 2022 (March 1 Republican primary), Texas' 8th Congressional District election, 2022 (March 1 Republican primary), United States House election in Wyoming, 2022 (August 16 Republican primary), Virginia's 7th Congressional District election, 2022 (June 21 Republican primary), West Virginia's 2nd Congressional District election, 2022 (May 10 Republican primary), Election results, 2022: Comparison of state delegations to the 117th and 118th Congresses, Number of Democratic and Republican candidates on the ballot for federal and state offices, 2022, Ballot access for major and minor party candidates, Congressional incumbents not running for re-election, Cooperative of American Physicians IE Committee, Ken Carbullido, Vice President of Election Product and Technology Strategy, https://ballotpedia.org/wiki/index.php?title=United_States_House_of_Representatives_elections,_2022&oldid=9073405, Pages using DynamicPageList parser function, Pages using DynamicPageList dplreplace parser function, Conflicts in school board elections, 2021-2022, Special Congressional elections (2023-2024), 2022 Congressional Competitiveness Report, State Executive Competitiveness Report, 2022, State Legislative Competitiveness Report, 2022, Partisanship in 2022 United States local elections, 6/28/2022; 8/23/2022 (congressional and state senate only), 4/7/2022; 6/10/2022 (congressional and state senate only), 7/5/2022 (if no federal office is involved); 7/26/2022 (if a federal office is involved), 5/3/2022 (Congress and statewide offices), 2/2/2022 (U.S. House candidates: 3/4/2022), 3/15/2022 (Congress and statewide offices only).
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