Since, hes picked up some additional confidence and experience on long, difficult courses, playing in his first Presidents Cup at Quail Hollow. This will be Ims eighth start in nine weeks, which is an unsustainable pace, and we already started to see the wheels come off last weekend at the Honda Classic. Adam Scott has a stellar career record at the Genesis Invitational. Breaking down the 2023 Arnold Palmer Invitational picks for this week at Bay Hill with our best bets, One and Done selection and more PGA Tour expert picks. Gdula: Max Homa (20-1, FanDuel) I hate rooting against Max, but his odds are to the point where hes shorter than a lot of names Id rather take. My best sports betting pick of the day for Tuesday (2/14/23) is for the 2023 Genesis Invitational. From Golf Digest Architecture Editor emeritus Ron Whitten: I've always been fascinated by the design of Bay Hill, Arnold Palmer's home course for over 45 years (although Tiger Woods owns it, competitively-speaking, as he's won there eight times.) Gilliam County. READ MORE: Full sports betting coverage from The Philadelphia Inquirer. 2nd Chance Bet Stats pulled across Last 36 Rounds unless otherwise noted. Its even more encouraging to see that Conners has found early success on these greens, gaining strokes putting in two of his first three appearances at this event. Generally speaking, this is not a week Im giving longshots much of a chance to contend. (Pat Mayo also had runner-up Eric Cole as a +900 top-10 bet.) Honda: Sungjae Im. Jon Rahm and Scottie Scheffler have combined to win each of the first three elevated events of 2023. Still, it was a profitable week at the Honda and we move forward. February 28, 2023 12:30 pm ET. Full Leaderboard . However, Taylor Pendrith is a much more talented player than the gaudy odds would suggest. He hit another 25-1 shotat the Houston Open, taking Tony Finau to win. Its a good number if nothing else. Shriners: Sungjae Im. Honda: Chris Kirk. Top-10 results from the Honda Classic: Mayo: 1 for 1 (Eric Cole +900); Hennessey: 1 for 1 (Chris Kirk +330); Everybody else: 0 for 1, Top-10 results from this season: Gdula: 7 for 17 (up 17.6 units); Mayo: 6 for 16 (up 12.1 units); Gehman: 5 for 17 (up 9.55 units); Lack: 3 for 8 (up 2.9 units); Hennessey: 4 for 17 (up 2.85 units); Powers: 2 for 17 (down 8.9 units); Caddie: 2 for 17 (down 8.95 units). 1 Jon Rahm leads a stacked field that includes 23 of the top 25 players in the Official World Golf Ranking. Scroll down to read our best bets for the 2023 Arnold Palmer Invitational. Keith Mitchell has grabbed two top fives in his last three starts. At the British Open, four of Holliman's picks finished in the top eight, including Dustin Johnson (35-1) and Tommy Fleetwood (35-1). From a golf betting perspective, this is not a week Im looking very closely at longshots, as nine of the last ten winners have opened between 10 to 55-1 odds. All picks and predictions are suggestions only. February 28, 2023 12:30 pm ET. Bay Hill has been a ball-strikers paradise historically, and theres no better ball-striker to go to war with (besides Willy Z) than Kawa. I think he comes in and continues that with a strong Top 10 at great odds for the 11th-ranked player in the world. McIlroy has gained strokes putting at Bay Hill in four of his past five trips, which has translated to one win, four top-10s and no finish worse than T-13. But we have our eyes on another former Masters champ as our long-shot bet to win. That makes the John Deere one of the weakest field events of the year -- but that doesn't mean there isn't money to be made betting it. The PGA Tour schedule continues this week in Orlando, Florida for the 2023 Arnold Palmer Invitational at Bay Hill Club and Lodge. With the $20 million purse on the line, the field is once again loaded with defending champion Scottie Scheffler now joined by Jon Rahm, Rory McIlroy, Justin Thomas and 10 of the Top 11 players in the OWGR and 44 of the Top 50 players in the world. Despite two disappointing finishes in Phoenix and Los Angeles, McIlroy was still brilliant from tee-to-greenlosing over eight strokes with the putter during that stretch. Anonymous Caddie Picker of the week: Rory McIlroy (10-1, BetMGM) Im not sure how we ended up here after his insane 2022, but at the end of February Rorys already the forgotten man. Im sure hell make the cut, but I dont see him finishing top 10. Riley Hamel. There are many types of long shots when betting golf tournaments. Sanderson Farms Championship: J.T. Lack: Hideki Matsuyama (66-1, BetMGM) This is a pure number play for me, as in my opinion, Hideki Matsuyama is a bonafide top-20 player in the world, despite the betting markets not treating him like one. Were always looking for courses which wont require the winner to breach 20 under, and Bay Hill certainly qualifies. Brandon Gdula, managing editor and analyst for NumberFire, a FanDuel daily-fantasy analysis company, recently won the 2018 FSWA Golf Writer of the Year. But, crucially, it can be argued they are worse than Scott deserves based on his past performance. After a disappointing finish at the Memorial earlier this month, Conners has a great opportunity to make up for missing the cut at last years U.S. Open. After spending last year on the Korn Ferry Tour, An has not missed the cut in five starts in 2023 and is coming off a T21 finish at the Honda Classic, where he was hanging around the top-5 heading into Sunday. Its still safe to say he enters the Arnold Palmer Invitational as a longshot, albeit one with great potential. The PGA Tour's best will be back at it this week at Bay Hill Club & Lodge near Orlando, Fla., for the 2023 Arnold Palmer Invitational. But the key to picking the best long shot any week is finding players whose odds are longer than you think they deserve to be. Earlier this week, I previewed the PGA Championship focusing on three of the favorites at Southern Hills. Call 1-800-GAMBLER if you have a gambling problem. For example, Kim was one of the most popular up-and-comers out of the gates in 2023. For now, well assume equal playing conditions for the full field when determining top value plays until more information becomes available on tee times and Thursday/Friday weather reports. I dont think he can make enough putts to contend. The Wake Forest star remains one of the best drivers of the ball on long golf courses, as well as one of the best long iron players in the field. Longshot pick to win Arnold Palmer Invitational: Min Woo Lee (+15000). Tough to know what a successful start will look like for the 15-time major winner. He broke a winless drought earlier this season at the ZOZO Championship and followed that up with three top-20 finishes over his next six starts leading up to this week. And be sure to subscribe to "The Loop" wherever you get your podcasts! Bet with your head, not over it. Best irons for 2023 for every handicap and playing style, Three sleeper picks to win the 2023 Arnold Palmer Invitational, including Tommy Fleetwood at 80/1, Ratings for LIV Golf's 2023 TV debut are in and they aren't pretty, Your California Privacy Rights/Privacy Policy. No, he is not a tout. In a field as top-heavy as this one with so many elite options, a safe, high floor value player is going to be a must for DFS lineup construction purposes. The MC at Riviera was mainly due to his short game. Skip to main content. BetMGM Announces Responsible Gaming Advertising Strategy, Ohio Sports Betting Promos: Illinois Fighting Illini at OSU Buckeyes Odds. Recent history says a star will win this weekend, but that doesnt mean we cant take a look at three sleepers with a chance to pull an upset. The expert also just missed a MASSIVE 130-1 score at the Sony Open when Hayden Buckley finished as runner-up. (Photo by Maddie Meyer/Getty Images). Weve been up and down with our PGA Tour expert picks and best bets for these elevated events thus far but after a solid week at the Honda that was close to being great, were about to lock in with our Arnold Palmer Invitational picks. Riley Hamel. Keegan Bradley a sleeper no more? Zozo: Hideki Matsuyama. Follow him on Twitter: @gdula13. Obviously, we still have the 90/1 Luke List winner to fall back on. So, its a week in which players will need to enter in polished tee-to-green form in order to contend. Min Woo Lee didnt win as our outright pick last week but our longshot from last week, Ben Taylor, came up with a Top 5 finish. Defending tournament champion Scottie Scheffler, Rory McIlroy and current No. Over the last 20 rounds, Rory is actually gaining 0.2 strokes more tee-to-green than Rahm but the putter has been a bit cold. Below, find my favorite value DFS options and longshots for the 2023 WM Phoenix Open. by Mastercard. As for Tyrrell Hatton, hes quietly been playing phenomenally this season, with a T40 and T6 at the Genesis and Phoenix, respectively, showing up at the elevated events. Genesis: Justin Thomas. Sony Open: Gary Woodland. Full Leaderboard . Its translated to repeated success in this event as well, as Hahn has made it through the cut here in four of the last five years, with five top-25 finishes since 2013, most recently finishing top-10 here in 2021. RELATED: Phil Mickelson drops to depressingly low standing in the Official World Golf Ranking. Powers, Golf Digest: Chris Kirk (+600, DraftKings) Coming off his first win in eight years, Kirks confidence should be riding high. With lateral natural desert hazards and water threatening throughout this course, players will need to be in complete control of their driver off the tee, while those with above-average driving distance have been able to set up more scoring opportunities with shorter clubs into this firm and fast greens. 2023 Minute Media - All Rights Reserved. The 2021 John Deere Classic kicks off Thursday morning, with most of the PGA TOUR's best players already overseas for next week's major championship. Call 1-800-GAMBLER if you have a gambling problem. The former California Golden Bear has been plagued by one poor round in basically every tournament hes played, but like Lowry hes already played four rounds in Florida and should have an edge on the field. RELATED: Arnold Palmer Invitational picks 2023: Our DFS expert dives deep into Rory McIlroys staggering advanced metrics. Anyone who follows McDonald's advice has been cashing in! In terms of pure value, youd be hard pressed to find a better bet on the board than the former Masters champion. It will be the final major of 2021 and the last of the six comprising the 2020-21 PGA Tour (Photo by Luke Walker/Getty Images), Back Shohei Ohtani, Japan in World Baseball Classic futures market. It features long par 3s and par 4s, thick and penal rough, and extremely firm and fast greens. A graduate at Syracuse University, John works out of Jersey City as a Director of Media Strategy for HBO and HBO Max. Powers, Golf Digest: Shane Lowry (65-1, FanDuel) Last week he was the toast of the town as the second favorite, and he wound up finishing top five. After spending time at FanSided and NBC Sports EDGE, McDonald joined CBS Sports as a golf writer in the spring of 2022. https://golfweek.usatoday.com/lists/arnold-palmer-invitational-odds-sleeper-picks-tommy-fleetwood/, Mexico, Caribbean, Atlantic islands, Central America, Top 50 Classic Courses in Great Britain & Ireland, Top 50 Modern Courses in Great Britain & Ireland, PGA Tour approves radical schedule changes, reducing fields in elevated events and ending cuts, Drivers used by PGA Tour pros ranked in the top 10 in Strokes Gained: Off the Tee. Shop the best odds for PGA TOUR golf sleepers and more highly-touted players across sportsbooks here, including for top 10, top 20, etc. Which college basketball teams are bettors cashing in on? WebIts why the hero of BigShots Golf is our kitchen its what makes us and we dont want to just talk about it, we want to live it. In terms of DFS, this has proven to be a sticky week for course history. It seemed like the whole world was betting him at every turn. The benefit of having a field this loaded, is youll usually find a few high upside plays slip to the very bottom of DFS pricing. A graduate at Syracuse University, John works out of Jersey City as a Director of Media Strategy for HBO and HBO Max. Golfweek - Adam Woodard 19h It pays to play well on the PGA Tour, just ask this weeks winner, Chris Kirk. Skip to main content. He also suits the developing narrative set by Justin Rose last week, as a consistent veteran who is beginning to trend in 2023 (four consecutive top-25s) and in search of his first win since 2019. Hoffmans four top-15 finishes at the Arnold Palmer Invitational over the last five years are especially notable. His 27 FSWA nominations lead all writers this decade and are second-most all-time. Obviously, we still have the 90/1 Luke List winner to fall back on. Gdula: Sungjae Im (-108) over Tyrrell Hatton (FanDuel) Both have played well at Bay Hill, and the long-term tee-to-green data favors Im, so thats where Im going. Hes been rounding into that DNA form recently, improving his strokes gained with ball striking in each of the past three tournaments. More recently, he finished 10th in 2021 and 11th last season. Other long shots worth a look this week are a few pros who have been recently featured here, including Adam Scott (+10000), Sepp Straka (+12500) and Beau Hossler (+1500). The Twitter handle is a joke. The PGA Tour board on Tuesday night ratified a radical new approach for the 2024 schedule, Golfweek has confirmed. As the Florida swing continues, the PGA Tour heads to Bay Hill Club and Lodge in Orlando for the Arnold Palmer Invitational, the third designated event in four weeks. We hate touts. Arlington, Oregon 97812. Bermuda: Russell Knox. 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